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While there’s always a lot of buzz going into a new ski season, there’s particularly a lot of buzz going into the 2026-27 ski season as a super El Niño (also referred to as a very strong El Niño) continues to develop. While winters are often marked by La Niña or El Niño weather events, this winter is setting up to be unlike any pattern we’ve seen before, with some meteorologists suggesting that it could be the strongest El Niño on record. But what does that actually mean for the ski season? Let’s dig into it.
La Niña vs. El Niño?
What is El Niño and La Niña, and what’s the difference between the two? A La Niña event means that the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (around the equator) are below normal and that there’s lower-than-normal air pressure over the western Pacific. El Niño, on the other hand, is when the sea surface temperatures are above normal in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and there’s higher-than-normal air pressure over the western Pacific. La Niña events and El Niño events oscillate every 2-7 years, and these weather events can immensely impact the ski season and the amount of snowfall that different mountain regions receive.
As Meteorologist Chris Tomer discusses, “El Niño is defined by warmer than normal (at least 0.5C above normal) sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific Ocean near the Equator over a three month period. When SSTs are at least 1.5C above normal, it’s considered a strong El Niño, and a super strong El Nino when SSTs are at least 2.0C above normal.”
You probably remember the rare triple-dip La Niña that continued into 2023, which resulted in record-breaking snow that winter for many Utah ski resorts, as well as other ski areas out West. Alta, for example, crossed 900 inches of snow for the first time in its history, recording 903″ of snow. That was followed by a strong El Niño, which didn’t have nearly the impact on the ski season. Last year, the 2025-26 season, was a weak La Niña year, which saw historically low snowfall at many North America ski resorts.
What a Super El Niño Could Mean for the Ski Season
In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a statement that El Niño was strengthening, “with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.” They continued, saying that sea surface temperature anomalies had already exceeded +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and that multiple models indicated that El Niño would continue to strengthen through the end of the year. The NOAA wrote that there was a “69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.” So what does that mean for the North America ski season?
Historically, an El Niño winter favors ski destinations that are further south, benefitting ski resorts in California, Colorado, and often Utah. However, it can sometimes be a wild card, especially when you factor in warmer temperatures. The reality is that there have only been three other very strong El Niño events since 1950. It’s hard to make long-term weather predictions as it is, and that much more when facing a strong weather event like this. So at this point it’s hard to say.
El Niño and La Niña Impact on Past Ski Seasons
Long-range winter forecasts aren’t always instructive, and especially during the absence of La Niña and El Niño. La Niña and El Niño weather patterns serve as a historical guide, with meteorologists able to look at the data and forecasts from past seasons to make informed forecasts when those patterns reemerge. Yet long-range snow forecasts, even in La Niña and El Niño years, don’t always match up with actual snowfall. In 2023, for example, California was forecasted to have a warmer and drier ski season as a result of the La Niña event. However, multiple California ski areas broke their all-time snowfall records.
Whatever the upcoming ski season holds with El Niño, suffice to say there’s a lot of buzz. Though fall is just underway, snow is already flying in some destinations, while other ski areas will soon start making snow. Download our app, follow us on Instagram and Facebook, and subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates.
Header: ©Grand Targhee
September 17, 2026
