17/18 Ski Season Long-Range Weather Forecast

18th August 2017 | Meteorologist Chris Tomer

News Regions: Banff, Utah, Vermont, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, British Columbia, Colorado, West Coast, California, Rocky Mountains, Northeast, Lake Tahoe

Resorts in this article: Alta Ski Area, Aspen Snowmass, Big Sky, Jackson Hole, Killington Resort, Loveland, Mammoth Mountain, Schweitzer, Snowbasin, Snowbird, Steamboat, Sun Valley, Vail, Whistler Blackcomb, Wolf Creek Ski Area

Which ski resorts will get the most snow this winter? Snow Before You Go Meteorologist, Chris Tomer presents the long-range forecast for the 17/18 ski season.

My forecast is driven by ENSO Neutral conditions in the South Pacific between now and early December 2017, and my belief is that it will shift toward a minor La Niña (La Niña Lite) between mid December and March 2018.

What is ENSO?

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) describes how the South Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are interacting. They operate a feedback loop and the impact is global. Given that, the winter outlook is shaping up as follows:

• Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho: Normal to above normal snowfall this winter at the ski areas.

• Pacific Northwest: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.

• Whistler/Blackcomb & Banff: Normal to above normal snowfall.

• California: Normal to slightly below normal snowfall at the ski areas.

• Northeast: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.

Percentage of normal snowfall by resort for the 2017/2018 ski season.

Percentage of Normal Snowfall at Resorts

Colorado

Steamboat: 115%

Vail: 100%

Loveland: 115%

Aspen/Snowmass: 100%

Wolf Creek: 100%

Utah

Snowbasin: 110%

Alta & Snowbird: 100%

Wyoming

Jackson Hole: 115%

Montana

Big Sky: 115%

Idaho

Schweitzer: 115%

Sun Valley: 115%

British Columbia

Whistler/Blackcomb: 100%

California

Tahoe: 90%

Mammoth: 85%

Vermont

Killington: 100%

Tomer's Take

Keep in mind this is an early-season, broad-brush forecast. It's important to watch ocean temperatures in September and make adjustments. This forecast might be helpful if you're booking a Christmas or winter ski trip. The Intermountain West is trending in a wet direction, but the wildcard for early season ski trips will hinge on temperature trends. Early season temps can be too warm for some resorts.