My forecast is driven by ENSO Neutral conditions in the South Pacific between now and early December 2017, and my belief is that it will shift toward a minor La Niña (La Niña Lite) between mid December and March 2018.
What is ENSO?
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) describes how the South Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are interacting. They operate a feedback loop and the impact is global. Given that, the winter outlook is shaping up as follows:
• Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho: Normal to above normal snowfall this winter at the ski areas.
• Pacific Northwest: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.
• Whistler/Blackcomb & Banff: Normal to above normal snowfall.
• Northeast: Normal snowfall at the ski areas.
Percentage of Normal Snowfall at Resorts
Colorado
Steamboat: 115%
Vail: 100%
Loveland: 115%
Aspen/Snowmass: 100%
Wolf Creek: 100%
Utah
Snowbasin: 110%
Alta & Snowbird: 100%
Wyoming
Jackson Hole: 115%
Montana
Big Sky: 115%
Idaho
Schweitzer: 115%
Sun Valley: 115%
British Columbia
Whistler/Blackcomb: 100%
California
Tahoe: 90%
Mammoth: 85%
Vermont
Killington: 100%
Tomer's Take
Keep in mind this is an early-season, broad-brush forecast. It's important to watch ocean temperatures in September and make adjustments. This forecast might be helpful if you're booking a Christmas or winter ski trip. The Intermountain West is trending in a wet direction, but the wildcard for early season ski trips will hinge on temperature trends. Early season temps can be too warm for some resorts.
