US: Winter 21/22 Long-Range Weather Forecast

With everything going on in 2021, we’re looking forward to the 21/22 winter season now more than ever. We sat down with meteorologist Chris Tomer to get a pulse on what we can expect this season.

➽ What will the snow be like for winter 2021/2022?

There are numerous global factors that influence how much snow could fall across the United States each winter season. Of all the factors, I like to analyze the water temperatures in the South Pacific near the Equator. Water temperatures in this geographic area tend to affect the wintertime jet stream position in the United States. Keep in mind this is a forecast.

The bulk of data suggests we’re headed into a cold phase also known as La Nina. The most recent analog is last winter, which was also a La Nina winter. La Nina tends to organize the wintertime jet stream in a way that favors the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier of states with the most consistent winter snowfall. La Nina tends to leave California and the Southern Tier of states drier and warmer than normal. This pattern is not conducive to atmospheric river setups. The drought can deepen as a result.

*2021/2022 Winter Snow Forecast for the West. (Graphic provided by Chris Tomer)*

➽ Who will have a late start?

In Utah and Colorado, I’m forecasting a late start to winter with a warm, dry fall season. Then winter should kick in by December and deliver a mostly normal winter snow season across the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado and the Wasatch of Utah. I’m also forecasting many abnormally warm and windy periods mixed in. Southern parts of both Utah and Colorado look drier than normal.