Aloha kakahiaka my friends,
Cup:O:Joe in hand with the latest read from the WWG… Looking like both the NWS & WWG forecasts are starting to align on the when & moisture associated with the incoming weather switch… #StokeLevelRising for sure, Now to be clear, with the current weather we are looking at today through Friday, I really doubt we will be able to make enough snow to open for Thanksgiving… Temps are currently 33@the base & 38@the top of Solitude (our Chair 5) @the summit 38.9 so as forecast the inversion has set in… Caveat, Tahoe Local passes and Value pass holders can access Heavenly or Northstar… Remember about the blackout dates… Kirkwood only pass holders will need to wait until we get the mountain open here…
Here is the latest from both the WWG and NWS forecast centers:
HIGHLIGHTS: Much warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions should persist through Thanksgiving Day. Next wet storm should begin impacting the Sierra Nevada Saturday, with potentially heavy high elevation snow and rain at onset for areas below 7000-8000 feet.
Discussion: Weather conditions should stay fairly consistent over the next several days as high pressure centers itself over California. Highs will remain well above average in the upper 50s to around 60 at 6500 feet (40s at 8500 feet) through the end of the week. Strong inversions will set up allowing locations below 6500 feet to cool off rapidly (low to mid 20s) overnight. The next storm system appears much wetter than the previous few with preliminary water-equivalent precipitation totals of around 1.5-2.5". South winds will likely pickup Friday afternoon, though no precipitation is expected for Friday at this time. Saturday morning a disturbance should approach the area bringing rain to areas below 8000 feet at first. This initial disturbance will weaken, but it will help draw a stronger, wetter and slightly cooler system southward. This system appears to push onshore Sunday afternoon bringing heavy rainfall to the North State and dropping snow levels down to around 7000 feet. This storm system also does not appear to bring in enough cold air to result in significant snow totals to areas below 6500 feet till Monday. Regardless, this area of low pressure may take its time to move out of the area and could provide high elevation areas with consistent moderate to heavy snowfall from Saturday evening till Tuesday. Snow totals above 8000 feet could be in the 2-3 feet range by (next) Tuesday morning if current computer models verify.
NWS/NOAA Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Medium-range models continue to be in good agreement, swinging the first in a series of cold fronts through Northern California late Friday into Friday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week with strong jet dynamics and good Diffluent flow aloft. The strongest precipitation is likely to be Sunday into Monday as the cold upper low approaches the region. The primary impacts anticipated will be to Thanksgiving holiday travel with rain, snow, and breezy conditions. Subtle differences in the systems` timing, position, and strength can have a large impact on amounts. Being this far out, the rain/snow forecast amounts will likely change. Nonetheless, be prepared for potentially delayed travel due to road conditions. In addition, Fallen leaves this time of year can contribute to clogged drains and localized flooding. Dang/JClapp
And as I do, I am going to insert the caveat here, we are looking at forecasts, and inevitably they will change… I will #KeepTheFaith and #KeepYouAllInTheLoop
Stay tuned & Stay Thirsty my friends,
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Aloha kakahiaka my friends, Cup:O:Joe in hand with the latest read from the WWG… Looking like both the NWS & WWG forecasts are starting to align on the when & moisture associated with the incoming weather switch…