The short term certainly gives those of us on the east coast something to be excited about; Killington and Sunday River are open for the season, other resorts such as Mount Snow, Bretton Woods and Cranmore have started making snow in earnest, and best of all, some natural snow is on the way!
The potential coastal storm that I mentioned last week is indeed taking shape, and will bring the first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season to the Northeast on Thursday. The latest forecast models have been trending towards taking the center of this nor’easter a bit further off the coast. This will be beneficial in making sure that any precipitation that does fall in southern New York, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern and central New Hampshire, and southern Maine will remain all snow. It does however leave more northern and western portions of the northeast high and dry, so to speak.
As far as snowfall amounts go, the Catskills and Berkshires will likely make out the best, seeing three to six inches of accumulation with some isolated higher elevations receiving up to a foot. As the storm moves north, it will also move far enough east to limit snowfall amounts in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine to the one to three inch range with, again, locally higher amounts at elevation.
So unfortunately, this storm will end up being more of a morale booster than anything. This is especially true because of the awful looking weather pattern looming on the horizon for the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. A storm will track north of the Great Lakes starting Sunday, which will stream in some very unseasonably warm air ahead of the cold front of that system. Monday or Tuesday of next week will likely be the warmest days before the cold front finally moves through on Wednesday.
As far as snowmaking is concerned, temperatures will be cold enough at night across the northeast through Friday night. Unfortunately, I don’t see many resorts taking advantage of the opportunity for anything more than some testing because of the unseasonable temperatures that are on the way. So be patient, remember that it’s only early November, and enjoy the little taste of natural snow over the next couple of days!
Brian Clark is a Meteorologist for OpenSnow.com.